Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 will debut tomorrow and will be the first game in the franchise to launch directly on Xbox Game Pass. Microsoft seeks to gain millions of subscribers for its service thanks to this attractive release, as it is one of the most popular sagas in the industry.
Various analysts believe they will achieve this, but at the expense of the sales that a new Call of Duty game usually generates. Several experts recently shared their predictions about what will happen with the game's release on the service. Some were optimistic and assured that Xbox Game Pass will grow significantly thanks to Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, while others were more reserved, expecting moderate growth.
Will Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 boost Xbox Game Pass subscribers?
Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush, was one of the experts who shared his point of view. From his perspective, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 will lose up to 6 million sales, but he believes that its day-one release will help the service gain between 3 and 4 million subscribers. He thinks this launch is good news for Microsoft and players; however, he is certain that the headlines will reflect the drop in franchise sales.
Meanwhile, Piers Harding-Rolls, an analyst at Ampere, believes that the growth in Xbox Game Pass subscribers will be moderate. He forecasts a 10% growth in Ultimate subscriptions, which equates to around 2.5 million. However, he says that not all users will be new, as many will upgrade from basic plans to Ultimate to play the title as a day-one release. He also believes the game will lose some sales, but the monetization system will balance things out.
On the other hand, Serkan Toto, an analyst at Katan Games, believes Xbox is under a lot of pressure due to the shooter's launch on Xbox Game Pass. He fears the consequences if the game doesn’t meet expectations and doesn’t contribute to the service's growth as Microsoft hopes.
“We all know that Microsoft's gaming unit has not been growing as expected, which is why Microsoft greenlit the Activision Blizzard mega deal in the first place. Now the pressure on Xbox is sky high: If Call of Duty will not make the Game Pass business model work, what possibly can?
“Nobody knows what Microsoft's expectations are for Game Pass growth past launch, but if Black Ops 6 does not meet targets, things can become very grim very quickly,” Toto said.
All analysts stated that the success of this release depends on Xbox’s ability to retain new subscribers on its service. For that, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 will need a successful launch, avoid potential controversies, and provide continuous content for its fans.
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